ABSTRACT

Objective:

This study was designed to detect the relation between serum progesterone and viability of pregnancy during the first trimester.

Material and Methods:

Two hundred and sixty women during the first trimester of their pregnancies were hospitalised due to vaginal bleeding and/or abdominal pain and were included in this study. Criteria for inclusion in this study were: certain dates, foetus conceived spontaneously with no history of infertility and a positive serum pregnancy test. Blood samples were taken from women included in this study for serum progesterone assay; the patients were followed by ultrasound until the end of the first trimester for the viability of the pregnancy and the outcome of their pregnancy was recorded.

Results:

By the end of the first trimester, women included in this study were classified into: viable pregnancy group (n=178; 68.5%) and non-viable pregnancy group (ended by miscarriage) (n=82; 31.5%). The mean serum progesterone of the studied population was significantly higher in the viable pregnancy group (46.5±7.4 ng/mL) compared to non-viable pregnancy group (9.9±4.8 ng/mL; p<0.05). The serum progesterone cut-off level of 10 ng/mL was 79.3% sensitive for diagnosing non-viable pregnancy and 93.3% specific for the diagnosis of viable pregnancy, while a cut-off level of 20 ng/mL was 95.1% sensitive for the diagnosis of non-viable pregnancy and 98.9% specific for diagnosing viable pregnancy.

Conclusion:

Serum progesterone is a reliable marker for early pregnancy failure and a single assay of its serum level can differentiate between viable and non-viable pregnancies.