Objective:

To predict the risk of cesarean delivery (CS) for multiparous women who have undergone previous vaginal delivery.

Material and Methods:

A prospective observational study was performed, among multiparous pregnancies that were between 38 and 41 gestational weeks and had a singleton, vertex presentation fetus. Women’s physical activity score, obstetric history, intrapartum and postpartum events were assessed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore risk factors associated with CS.

Results:

Of the 245 total 83.7% had spontaneous labor and 16.3% were induced. Seventy-five percent of the induced women required CS, whereas only 19.5% of those with spontaneous labor required CS (p<0.001). The logistic regression analysis model included maternal weight gain, physical activity score, cervical dilatation, and fetal weight as the predictors of CS. We detected 7 (10%) maternal complications in women who underwent intrapartum CS.

Conclusion:

Labor induction is significantly associated with increased risk of cesarean delivery among previously vaginally delivered women and maternal weight gain, physical activity score, cervical dilatation, and fetal weight are most accurate parameters in the prediction of the risk of CS delivery. Intrapartum CS has an increased risk of maternal morbidity.

Keywords: Labor induction, spontaneous labor, intrapartum cesarean, vaginal delivery, multiparity